Finishing the season near the top of your league can be rewarding, but if you’re reading this, you’re probably there to win. And to win, sometimes you have to roll the dice on one or two bets and hope to cash out. You certainly don’t want to burden these guys too much, as the chances of all of them turning out well are slim. Here are a handful of guys that could make or break your season, depending on how the coin falls.
Insulted
Tim Connolly BUF
Once again, Connolly was limited in the game due to injury. He wasn’t too bad this time, as he “only” missed 9 games with a foot injury. He managed to put up 65 points in 73 games, both of which were his career highs. No one denies his talent, but you can’t ignore the history here. It’s worth checking out late.
Simon Gagne TAM
With Win, the hope of landing one of the game’s top scorers at the end of the draft never dies. Injuries seem to follow this guy at every turn. Hopefully I can escape those monsters by moving him to Tampa. With Lecavalier or Stamkos serving him the puck, he’ll score at his usual pace (which is quite often). The question, as always, is durability. Well worth the risk as your fifth or sixth advancement option.
Marian Hossa CHI
After reaching 100 points a few years ago, Hossa has regularly ranked near the top of fantasy forwards; However, a couple of injury-shortened seasons with unexciting totals, his value has dipped a bit. While he contributes a lot to the Hawks with his defensive play, the offensive end has slipped steadily, as evidenced by his dismal playoff numbers last spring. There’s still a chance to get back into 80-point territory, but drafting Hossa too early is a risky move these days.
Ilya Kovalchuk NJD
Until you get a contract, consider it a gamble. There’s always a chance he’ll play in the KHL, and you don’t want to waste your first or second pick on a non-player.
Rick Nash COB
Up to this point, Nash has been a one-man show in Columbus. He’s never had a top-tier center to give him the puck. Some of the young forwards are starting to emerge so help may be on the way; however, in 2010, he’ll be pulling the load once more. While he has the talent to score 40 goals a season, he has yet to play a full slate of 82 games in his 7-year career. He missed 6 games last season and is a bit prone to injury. If all the stars align, he may still be a 50-goal scorer one day. The safe bet says he hits 35 this year.
Marc Savard BOS
It’s probably best to rule out last season when evaluating Savard’s draft value. He was plagued by various injuries and was healthy in very few of the 41 games he played. Looking back, he’s been an assist glutton for half a decade and should return to that role next season. On the other hand, concussions don’t go away, so there’s a chance his games won’t make it to 70. Potential for a big steal or disappointing flop.
Alejandro Semin WAS
In terms of raw talent, there are few players in the world at the same level as Semin. The problem is the extras. Between injuries, office decisions and the occasional periods when he can’t hit the net during games, he can be a risky pick, particularly in the first or second round. Then again, when he’s on, it’s worth the pain. They may not be able to keep you in DC forever with the other salaries on the books, so enjoy the production while it lasts.
Lee Stempniak PHO
If anyone out there has this guy figured out please let me know. For now, I’m putting it in the gamble category, only because we don’t have a “complete mystery” category yet. After four seasons of utter mediocrity, he was traded to the Coyotes last spring. Out of nowhere, he emerged as the hottest player in the league down the stretch. It seems impossible that he could pick up where he left off in terms of pace, but what he accomplished in the last 2 months of the season cannot be ignored. Added to the story that he still hasn’t signed. No advice on this from me. You’re on your own.
Defending
Kevin Bieksa GO
Bieksa has twice passed the 10-goal mark in his time with Vancouver. He has a booming shot, but can be inconsistent. He’s also injury prone, making him a risky pick. On the other hand, he could easily be a 50-point player if he stays healthy.
Brian Campbell CHI
Campbell has become the forgotten man playing in Chicago behind Keith and Seabrook. He finished the season on the IR with a broken clavicle, but returned in the playoffs to post some unimpressive numbers. Don’t let all that bad news sour Campbell’s future. He’s still a dynamic puck player and the Hawks will fill the nets again in 2010-11. As long as he’s healthy, there’s a good chance he can get back into the 50-plus point range this season. Or he could become one of the highest paid players of all time.
Joe Corvo CAR
Corvo can be a goal-scoring machine at times, but he has a history of being inconsistent. After arriving in Washington last spring, his production completely dried up, picking up just 8 points in 27 games. With that experiment deemed a failure, he will return to Carolina, where he will be the undisputed powerplay quarterback. It’s hard to project where he’ll be, but 10 goals and 35 points seems realistic.
Ryan WhitneyEDM
Roll the dice and pray for the best with Ryan Whitney. For years the Penguins waited for his appearance that came in 2006 with a huge 59-point season; However, things went south after that, and it bounced to Anaheim and now Edmonton. He rallied to 39 points last season after a dismal 23-point performance the year before. Edmonton won’t be leading the league in scoring this season, so they won’t benefit from any free assists along the way, but the potential will always be there for a great fantasy season.
James Wisniewski NYI
Wisniewski has shown flashes of great potential, but has yet to become a fantasy factor. He bounced from Chicago to Anaheim and now to New York, where he will have ample opportunity this season to establish himself as an offensive presence. He has a tendency to have hot and cold streaks and was suspended twice last season, so he took advantage of his opportunities. As a last round bet, it is worth choosing.
Jay Bouwmeester CGY
Bouwmeester’s stock took a deep dive last season. The move from Florida to Calgary was expected to help his stats, but his goal total dropped from 15 to 3. Where will he go from here? The Flames are still struggling to find an identity and don’t have the firepower to score much, so don’t count on a full resurgence. His numbers have yet to improve from last year’s disaster, though, so look for him as a potential sleeper. 10 goals and 40 points is a realistic goal this season.
goals
Craig AndersonCOL
Halfway through last season, Anderson was the story. He led the shocking avalanche to an incredible start. While it didn’t completely collapse, the team and its stats fell to the ground in the second half. Due to his high fantasy point total last season, GMs can over-inflate his value. Despite the initial success of last season, Colorado is still a young and growing team. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them miss the playoffs next year. Look at Anderson as a decent #2 option in 2010, no more.
Christopher Huet CHI
While the prevailing wisdom is that he’ll take his big contract to the AHL or Europe to free up some cap space, the bottom line at this point is that he’s still on the Hawks’ roster and, objectively speaking, a good goaltender. . Teams could do much worse than their 2.5 GAA and 26-14 record from last season. If another cap-room contender gets desperate enough, Huet can be a fantasy hockey factor once more before he finishes the season. At this point though, he’s quite the gamble to say the least.
Michael Leighton PHI
Recruiting a goalie from the Flyers can always be considered a gamble. Leighton delivered admirably as flavor of the month last spring after being ruled out by the Canes. He seems to be the best option in Philly right now, which gives him value from the get-go. He will keep an eye on the situation until draft day. If another porter comes to town, you can remove him from your list; otherwise, write it down for a late round bet.
Antiti Niemi (UFA)
It’s wait and see at this point for Niemi until she signs a deal…
Carey LUN Price
Price has only been in the league a couple of years, and you could already write a book about the journey he’s been on. The last chapter saw him lose his job to Halak last spring, only to see Halak shipped out for next to nothing. While this defaults him back to the starting role, it adds even more pressure to the man, particularly if the fans have to watch Halak succeed in St. Louis. And more pressure is not what a 23-year-old goalkeeper in Montreal needs. The upside is that he’s a young, skilled goalie on a team on the brink of the playoffs. The Canadiens don’t have a particularly strong defensive team in front of him, so he’ll probably see a lot of shooting in 2010, if it lasts. No matter how you look at it, recruiting Price is a serious gamble.